A year into the Clinton Presidency, the pundits were already writing the obituary. After the Travelgate and the Health Care fiascoes, ‘this is a one term President,’ they said. Clinton, if we recall, was elected on a similar wave of enthusiasm for change. But how quickly it went south. Now, of course, despite even the scandals and the impeachment, Clinton is fondly remembered by most, and assumes the role of elder statesman.
Obama has had a luckier start. He assembled a more professional team to run the show from the beginning, and avoided any major scandals. But as expected, the shine is coming off the silverware as he moves towards the one year mark. And it is to be expected. The President has basked in an extended honeymoon so long as he gave lofty speeches and didn’t try and do much. But now that he has upped the ante and is working to bring real change to Washington, the change that he promised, the opponents are energized like never before.
The media are having a field day, causing the President to emulate the Bush strategy of media envelopment, appearing on 5 interview shows over the weekend, trying to get his message out. However, he might also take counsel as to how to better manage expectations as much as he worries about managing the passage of the Health reforms.
For the Obama Presidency to be great, he has to have obstacles. For him to become a hero, there has to be a series of villains. The halo of this holy warrior has to tilt and fall off at some point, as he journeys from innocence to experience. That is the narrative arc of great Presidents and great stories. Think of Lincoln, or Roosevelt and why we remember them so fondly-because of what they overcame, because of how they led the country in its moment of grave crisis.
All the problems, with the economy and with health care and with foreign wars are all issues that Obama inherited. Its as if as the new Sheriff, he is having a hard time cleaning up Dodge. But none of these will define his presidency. His moment of truth lies ahead, in something as unpredicatable and as threatening as 9-11. That is not trying to be clairvoyant, it is simply mapping the trajectory of most Presidencies on to his. We can’t be sure of much, but of this we can-that this story is only beginning.
If the polls drop dramatically, and if the media are writing about a “one term Obama” and some of his cherished reforms are stalled or blocked, all that proves is that this was never going to be easy. And this will ultimately test the character of our President, and reveal what kind of leader he is going to be.
To date, we have only seen the prologue of the Obama story-with the fairy tale aura of its surprise still resonating. But now that the gloves are off, and now that the conservative forces like Glen Beck and Limbaugh realise that he is vulnerable, one can return to one’s seat to watch the main act. The real Obama Presidency is about to begin. Now we will see what he is made of. As Shakespeare might say, Let the play begin.